Global weather fluctuations called El Nino events are likely to become more frequent by 2040, a new study shows.

El Nino — the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean -affects climate, ecosystems and societies worldwide.

The study examined four possible scenarios for future carbon emissions, and found increased risk of El Nino events in all four.

This means El Nino events and associated climate extremes are now more likely «regardless of any significant mitigation actions» to reduce emissions, the researchers warn.

Lead author Dr Jun Ying, from the Second Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources in China and the University of Exeter, said: «We know from previous studies that, when measuring El Nino changes in terms of rainfall shifts in the eastern equatorial Pacific, models predict an increase in the frequency of events.

«This study shows that those changes could happen after the next two decades.»

The study, published in Nature Climate Change, examines the «time of emergence» of changes in the tropical Pacific using state-of-the-art climate models.

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