A new study models future SARS-CoV-2 mutations and forecasts their ability to evade immune defenses developed by vaccines and antibody-based treatments.

The study, published Dec. 2 in Science as an accelerated publication for immediate release, was designed to gauge how SARS-CoV-2 might evolve as it continues to adapt to its human hosts and in doing so to help public health officials and scientists prepare for future mutations.

Indeed, as the research was nearing publication, a new variant of concern, dubbed omicron, entered the scene and was subsequently found to contain several of the antibody-evading mutations the researchers predicted in the newly published paper. As of Dec. 1, omicron has been identified in 25 countries in Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, and North and South America, a list that is growing daily.

The researchers caution that the study findings are not directly applicable to omicron because how this specific variant behaves will depend on the interplay among its own unique set of mutations-at least 30 in the viral spike protein — and on how it competes against other active strains circulating in populations around the world. Nonetheless, the researchers said, the study gives important clues about particular areas of concern with omicron, and also serves as a primer on other mutations that might appear in future variants.

«Our findings suggest that great caution is advised with omicron because these mutations have proven quite capable of evading monoclonal antibodies used to treat newly infected patients and antibodies derived from mRNA vaccines,» said study senior author Jonathan Abraham, assistant professor of microbiology in the Blavatnik Institute at HMS and an infectious disease specialist at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. The researchers did not study response to antibodies developed from non-mRNA vaccines.

The longer the virus continues to replicate in humans, Abraham noted, the more likely it is that it will continue to evolve novel mutations that develop new ways to spread in the face of existing natural immunity, vaccines, and treatments. That means that public health efforts to prevent the spread of the virus, including mass vaccinations worldwide as soon as possible, are crucial both to prevent illness and to reduce opportunities for the virus to evolve, Abraham said.

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Materials provided by Harvard Medical School. Original written by Jake Miller. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.