An international agreement to protect the ozone layer is expected to prevent 443 million cases of skin cancer and 63 million cataract cases for people born in the United States through the end of this century, according to new research. The research team developed a computer modeling approach that revealed the effect of the Montreal Protocol and subsequent amendments on stratospheric ozone, the associated reductions in ultraviolet radiation, and the resulting health benefits.
The research team, by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), ICF Consulting, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), focused on the far-reaching impacts of a landmark 1987 treaty known as the Montreal Protocol and later amendments that substantially strengthened it. The agreement phased out the use of chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that destroy ozone in the stratosphere.
Stratospheric ozone shields the planet from harmful levels of the Sun’s ultraviolet (UV) radiation, protecting life on Earth.
To measure the long-term effects of the Montreal Protocol, the scientists developed a computer modeling approach that enabled them to look to both the past and the future by simulating the treaty’s impact on Americans born between 1890 and 2100. The modeling revealed the treaty’s effect on stratospheric ozone, the associated reductions in ultraviolet radiation, and the resulting health benefits.
In addition to the number of skin cancer and cataract cases that were avoided, the study also showed that the treaty, as most recently amended, will prevent approximately 2.3 million skin cancer deaths in the U.S.
«It’s very encouraging,» said NCAR scientist Julia Lee-Taylor, a co-author of the study. «It shows that, given the will, the nations of the world can come together to solve global environmental problems.»
The study, funded by the EPA, was published in ACS Earth and Space Chemistry. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
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Materials provided by National Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Original written by David Hosansky. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.