Scientists have developed a simple algorithm-based model which predicts how coastlines could be affected by extreme storms and predicted rises in sea levels and — as a result — enables communities to identify the actions they might need to take in order to adapt.

However, scientists at the University of Plymouth have developed a simple algorithm-based model which accurately predicts how coastlines could be affected and — as a result — enables communities to identify the actions they might need to take in order to adapt.

The Forecasting Coastal Evolution (ForCE) model has the potential to be a game-changing advance in coastal evolution science, allowing adaptations in the shoreline to be predicted over timescales of anything from days to decades and beyond.

This broad range of timescales means that the model is capable of predicting both the short-term impact of violent storm or storm sequences (over days to years), as well as predicting the much longer-term evolution of the coast due to forecasted rising sea levels (decades).

The computer model uses past and present beach measurements, and data showing the physical properties of the coast, to forecast how they might evolve in the future and assess the resilience of our coastlines to erosion and flooding.

Unlike previous simple models of its kind that attempt forecasts on similar timescales, ForCE also considers other key factors like tidal, surge and global sea-level rise data to assess how beaches might be impacted by predicted climate change.

Story Source:
Materials provided by University of Plymouth. Original written by Alan Williams. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.