Research has assessed the initial impact of COVID-19 on air transport and found that it is likely to lead to a smaller, consolidated sector in the future.

The research — involving a series of in-depth interviews with senior aviation industry executives along with analysis of flight and air freight data — provides an early assessment of the medium- and long-term impact of COVID-19 on air transport for both passenger and cargo traffic.

After a rapid geographical spread of the virus with initial manifestation in Asia and a lagged response in the rest of the world, most airlines tried to operate a normal schedule until they were prevented by mobility restrictions such as border closures and lockdowns, translating into sudden drops in flight numbers from mid-March.

Data showed that impact has been stronger in international than domestic markets. There was a partial recovery of Asia Pacific domestic markets during March, fueled by China’s recovery, turning into a double-dip in April as other Asian countries experienced drops in domestic traffic in line with global trends.

Interviewees thought the crisis would lead to consolidation and a significantly smaller industry and were concerned about the possible differences in state aid and how that could affect the level playing field in a post-COVID-19 aviation market.

Dr Pere Suau-Sanchez, Senior Lecturer in Air Transport Management at Cranfield University, said: «Along with other sectors of the economy, air traffic is vulnerable to external factors, such as oil crises, natural disasters, armed conflicts, terrorist attacks, economic recessions and disease outbreaks. The findings of this paper represent an early assessment that can help the aviation industry and other related industries like tourism in the preparation for the recovery period.

Story Source: Materials provided by Cranfield University. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.