Researchers used numerical models that started with simple conditions to better understand exactly how hurricanes arise.

After decades of research, meteorologists still have questions about how hurricanes develop. Now, Florida State University researchers have found that even the smallest changes in atmospheric conditions could trigger a hurricane, information that will help scientists understand the processes that lead to these devastating storms.

«The whole motivation for this paper was that we still don’t have that universal theoretical understanding of exactly how tropical cyclones form, and to really be able to forecast that storm-by-storm, it would help us to have that more solidly taken care of,» said Jacob Carstens, a doctoral student in the Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science.

The research by Carstens and Assistant Professor Allison Wing has been published in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems.

Current theories on the formation of hurricanes agree that some sort of disturbance must exist to start the process that leads to a hurricane. Carstens used numerical models that started with simple conditions to better understand exactly how those disturbances arise.

«We’re trying to go as bare bones as possible, looking at just how exactly clouds want to organize themselves without any of these external factors playing into it to form a tropical cyclone more efficiently,» he said. «It’s a way we can further round out our broader understanding and look more purely at the actual tropical cyclones themselves rather than the surrounding environment’s impact on it.»

The simulations started with mostly uniform conditions spread across the imaginary box where the model played out. Then, researchers added a tiny amount of random temperature fluctuations to kickstart the model and observed how the simulated clouds evolved.

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Materials provided by Florida State University. Original written by Bill Wellock. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.