Web-based analytics have demonstrated their value in predicting the spread of infectious disease, and a new study indicates the value of analyzing Google web searches for keywords related to COVID-19.

Strong correlations were found between keyword searches on the internet search engine Google Trends and COVID-19 outbreaks in parts of the U.S., according to a study published in Mayo Clinic Proceedings. These correlations were observed up to 16 days prior to the first reported cases in some states.

«Our study demonstrates that there is information present in Google Trends that precedes outbreaks, and with predictive analysis, this data can be used for better allocating resources with regards to testing, personal protective equipment, medications and more,» says Mohamad Bydon, M.D., a Mayo Clinic neurosurgeon and principal investigator at Mayo’s Neuro-Informatics Laboratory.

«The Neuro-Informatics team is focused on analytics for neural diseases and neuroscience. However, when the novel coronavirus emerged, my team and I directed resources toward better understanding and tracking the spread of the pandemic,» says Dr. Bydon, the study’s senior author. «Looking at Google Trends data, we found that we were able to identify predictors of hot spots, using keywords, that would emerge over a six-week timeline.»

Several studies have noted the role of internet surveillance in early prediction of previous outbreaks such as H1N1 and Middle East respiratory syndrome. There are several benefits to using internet surveillance methods versus traditional methods, and this study says a combination of the two methods is likely the key to effective surveillance.

The study searched for 10 keywords that were chosen based on how commonly they were used and emerging patterns on the internet and in Google News at that time.

Story Source: Materials provided by Mayo Clinic. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.