Public perceptions of climate change, the future cost and effectiveness of climate mitigation and technologies, and how political institutions respond to public pressure are all important determinants of the degree to which the climate will change over the 21st century, according to a new study.

The study, published today in the journal Nature, indicates that public perceptions of climate change, the future cost and effectiveness of climate mitigation and technologies, and how political institutions respond to public pressure are all important determinants of the degree to which the climate will change over the 21st century.

«Small changes in some variables, like the responsiveness of the political system or the level of public support for climate policy, can sometimes trigger a cascade of feedbacks that result in a tipping point and drastically change the emissions trajectory over the century,» said lead author Frances C. Moore, an assistant professor with the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy. «We’re trying to understand what it is about these fundamental socio-political-technical systems that determine emissions.»

Coupling climate and policy

The authors note that the biggest uncertainty in understanding climate impacts over the long term is what emissions will be in the future. Most climate and energy modeling treats policy as something external to the models. But to prepare for climate impacts, adaptation planners need to understand the probability of different temperature outcomes for future decades.

For this study, the authors modeled 100,000 possible future pathways of climate policy and greenhouse gas emissions. They used an integrated, multidisciplinary model that connected data across a wide range of social, political and technical fields. Such scenarios included public and political support, social perceptions of climate change, how quickly collective action or carbon pricing responds to changes in public opinion and other inputs.

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Materials provided by University of California — Davis. Original written by Kat Kerlin. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.