New research shows that the most numerate officials were almost twice as likely as less numerate ones to provide additional evacuation times to their coastal communities during a hurricane. Less numerate ones, on the other hand, gave their communities less advance warning, and when they finally did issue evacuations, over-evacuated tens of thousands more people.

New research suggests that emergency management officials often do not have the numeracy skills needed to make the best decisions based on data they receive about which residents to evacuate during a hurricane and when to make the decision.

The study, published online Aug. 30 in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, showed that the most numerate officials were almost twice as likely as less numerate ones to provide additional evacuation times to their coastal communities. Less numerate ones, on the other hand, gave their communities less advance warning, and when they finally did issue evacuations, over-evacuated tens of thousands more people.

And, the study found, federal agencies need to supply emergency management officials with the most complete information available in order for them to make the best choices for people who live in a disaster’s path.

This is not to say emergency management officials are not good at math, said Noah Dormady, lead author of the study and an associate professor of public policy at The Ohio State University.

«It’s more they haven’t received the right training in probability and risk to effectively understand scientific forecasts that contain probability information,» Dormady said.

Story Source:
Materials provided by Ohio State University. Original written by Laura Arenschield. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.