Can Switzerland, as planned, cut its CO2 emissions to zero by 2050? Researchers have investigated what measures would be necessary to achieve this reduction and how much it might cost per person.

In August 2019, the Swiss Federal Council decided on an ambitious target to limit climate change: From the year 2050 onward Switzerland should, on balance, discharge no further greenhouse gas emissions. With this commitment, Switzerland meets the internationally agreed goal of limiting global warming to a maximum of 1.5° C compared to the pre-industrial era.

Now a study by the Paul Scherrer Institute, conducted within the Joint Activity «Scenarios and Modelling» of the eight Swiss Competence Centres for Energy Research (SCCER), probes what options for achieving this goal exist in the energy sector.

«The goal of achieving net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050 requires drastic transformations in the provision and consumption of energy in nearly all areas,» concludes Tom Kober, head of the PSI Energy Economics Group and one of the study’s main authors.

In their analyses, the researchers considered energy-related CO₂ emissions as well as CO₂ emissions from industrial processes. Today these emissions represent around 80% of the entire Swiss greenhouse gas inventory. Not included in the study’s calculations are emissions from international aviation, agriculture — with the exception of emissions from fuel combustion — land use, changes in land use, and forestry, as well as waste — except for emissions from waste incineration. Also, emissions in other countries that are associated with consumption of goods in Switzerland were not a subject of the study.

Electricity from photovoltaics must at least double every decade

The central conclusions of the study are: Between now and 2050, the installed capacity of photovoltaic systems must at least double every decade. With 26 terawatt hours of production envisioned in 2050, photovoltaic systems will be the second largest generation technology group behind hydropower (approx. 38 terawatt hours in 2050). Furthermore, power plants with cogeneration of heat and power, as well as wind power plants, hydrogen fuel cells, and electricity imports, all contribute to meeting the demand for electricity. In the main scenario for achieving the net zero emissions target, overall electricity generation from power plants and storage facilities in Switzerland will increase by around one-fifth, to 83 terawatt hours in 2050. The study assumes that Swiss nuclear power plants will be decommissioned by 2045. The private car fleet would have to be largely based on electric motors by 2050, meaning that by 2030 every third new car registered would have to be fully electric. In addition, the use of heat pumps in service and living areas would have to be significantly accelerated, so that by 2050 they could cover almost three-quarters of the demand for heating and hot water. At the same time, it would be necessary to achieve significant energy savings through accelerated renovation of residential buildings.

Story Source: Materials provided by Paul Scherrer Institute. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.