A massive prospective spill from a deserted oil tanker in the Red Sea could lead to catastrophic public health effects in war-torn Yemen and neighboring countries unless urgent action is taken, according to a new study.

The FSO Safer (pronounced with a short «a»), located approximately 5 nautical miles off the coast of Yemen, contains 1.1 million barrels of oil — more than four times the amount spilled in 1989 by the Exxon Valdez. Abandoned since 2015 due to the conflict in Yemen, the dilapidated vessel is increasingly likely to leak oil due to deterioration of its hull, or to catch fire through the buildup of volatile gases or through a direct attack.

Currently, the Safer is under the control of the Houthis, an insurgent group of Islamists from northwestern Yemen. Despite the impending emergency, negotiations between the United Nations and the Houthis to inspect and repair the Safer have stalled indefinitely, and no long-term solutions, such as offloading the oil, have been publicly proposed.

«Most people can easily imagine how a massive spill might affect the environment, but the effects on public health, especially in a region undergoing a humanitarian crisis like Yemen, are harder to grasp, so we modeled it,» said Benjamin Huynh, a graduate student in biomedical informatics at Stanford. «Our hope is that by characterizing the public health threat the vessel poses, we can more accurately convey the urgency of the situation, and thus help push international parties to come to a solution.»

Their simulations revealed that air pollution from a full spill would increase the risk of cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations by 5.8% to 42%, depending on the duration of the spill and the presence of smoke from combustion. Cleanup workers and other individuals directly exposed to the oil could experience a 530% increased risk of cardiovascular and respiratory hospitalizations due to inhalation of fine particulate matter. These potential health effects are likely underestimated, given that oil spills are known to cause neurological, hematological, dermatological and psychiatric symptoms, according to the researchers.

«We knew of course that there would be some negative impacts of an oil spill, but were surprised by how many people would be impacted in the majority of our scenarios,» said David Rehkopf, ScD, an associate professor of epidemiology and population health, and co-director of the Stanford Center for Population Health Sciences. «We hope that puts more pressure on the international community to offload the oil and prevent this disaster.»

A paper describing the study will be published online Oct. 11 in Nature Sustainability. Huynh is the lead author, and Rehkopf is the senior author.

Story Source: Materials provided by Stanford Medicine. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.