Using computer modeling, researchers simulated how the distribution of quaking aspen, a native tree known for its brilliant yellow and orange foliage in fall and the sound of its trembling leaves, will change amid rising temperatures over the next 100 years.

Using computer modeling, researchers simulated how the distribution of quaking aspen, or Populus tremuloides, a native tree known for its brilliant yellow and orange foliage in fall and the sound of its trembling leaves, will change amid rising temperatures over the next 100 years.

They predicted quaking aspens will decline in visibility in 2120 under climate warming scenarios. Visibility will also decline along three scenic national byways in the Colorado Rockies — even if climate conditions remain at historical levels. They saw the greatest declines in the visible landscape areas.

«Aspen are sensitive to drought and warming temperatures, and empirically we are already starting to see declines,» said the study’s senior author Jelena Vukomanovic, assistant professor in the NC State Department of Parks, Recreation and Tourism Management. «Even if we keep current conditions, we will see declines in aspen. But under worsening climate change, the decline in aspen will be worse.»

In the study, researchers modeled the distribution of quaking aspen trees visible under three scenarios: If climate does not change from historical conditions observed from 1980 to 2010; under a 4-degree temperature increase with 15 percent less precipitation; and with a 4-degree decline and 15 percent more precipitation.

For each scenario, their simulation modeled whether aspens were visible from 32,949 different vantage points along three scenic roadways in Colorado: Cache la Poudre, Trail Ridge Road and Peak-to-Peak Highway. They used a computer model of forest dynamics called the Landscape Disturbance and Succession (LANDIS-II) model to forecast where aspen will grow and used U.S. Geological Survey elevation data to model visibility along scenic roads.

Story Source:
Materials provided by North Carolina State University. Original written by Laura Oleniacz. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.