A new study found a steep decline in the development of forest and agricultural land from 2000 to 2015 compared to the previous two decades, which resulted in a broad shift towards denser development patterns throughout the U.S. A primary culprit was rising gas prices.

Researchers from Oregon State University, Montana State University and the U.S. Forest Service found that falling gas prices and, to a lesser extent, rising income levels, drove land development from 1982 to 2000.

Since 2000, income growth has been stagnant and gas prices have risen sharply. The researchers concluded gas price increases, more so than changes in income and population, the other two factors they analyzed, most significantly shaped the recent shift towards denser development.

«Increasing gas prices raise commuting costs in areas with longer commutes, which makes land less attractive for housing development in such areas,» said David Lewis, a natural resource economist at Oregon State and co-author of the paper.

The change in land development patterns avoided the development of 7 million acres of forest and agricultural land, which the researchers described as «a remarkable decline» with important implications for the natural environment in a just published paper in Environmental Research Letters.

«I think it was surprising that this was occurring partly because it has received hardly any attention,» said Lewis. «It seems to have really flown under the radar that this rate of land development has been declining since the year 2000.»

The researchers found that the pace of land development steadily increased in the 1980s and peaked in the mid-to late 1990s before beginning a steady decline starting around the year 2000. A plateau occurred around 2010 at a level that amounts to less than one-quarter of the peak development rate in the 1990s. Notably, the declining land development rates began well before the Great Recession of the late 2000s.

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Materials provided by Oregon State University. Original written by Sean Nealon. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.